Search for: All records

IntroductionA defining aspect of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports (AR) is a formal uncertainty language framework that emphasizes higher certainty issues across the reports, especially in the executive summaries and short summaries for policymakers. As a result, potentially significant risks involving understudied components of the climate system are shielded from view. MethodsHere we seek to address this in the latest, sixth assessment report (AR6) for one such component—the deep ocean—by summarizing major uncertainties (based on discussions of low confidence issues or gaps) regarding its role in our changing climate system. The goal is to identify key research priorities to improve IPCC confidence levels in deep ocean systems and facilitate the dissemination of IPCC results regarding potentially high impact deep ocean processes to decision-makers. This will accelerate improvement of global climate projections and aid in informing efforts to mitigate climate change impacts. An analysis of 3,000 pages across the six selected AR6 reports revealed 219 major science gaps related to the deep ocean. These were categorized by climate stressor and nature of impacts. ResultsHalf of these are biological science gaps, primarily surrounding our understanding of changes in ocean ecosystems, fisheries, and primary productivity. The remaining science gaps are related to uncertainties in the physical (32%) and biogeochemical (15%) ocean states and processes. Model deficiencies are the leading cited cause of low certainty in the physical ocean and ice states, whereas causes of biological uncertainties are most often attributed to limited studies and observations or conflicting results. DiscussionKey areas for coordinated effort within the deep ocean observing and modeling community have emerged, which will improve confidence in the deep ocean state and its ongoing changes for the next assessment report. This list of key “known unknowns” includes meridional overturning circulation, ocean deoxygenation and acidification, primary production, food supply and the ocean carbon cycle, climate change impacts on ocean ecosystems and fisheries, and ocean-based climate interventions. From these findings, we offer recommendations for AR7 to avoid omitting low confidence-high risk changes in the climate system. 

Observing air-sea interactions on a global scale is essential for improving Earth system forecasts. Yet these exchanges are challenging to quantify for a range of reasons, including extreme conditions, vast and remote under-sampled locations, requirements for a multitude of co-located variables, and the high variability of fluxes in space and time. Uncrewed Surface Vehicles (USVs) present a novel solution for measuring these crucial air-sea interactions at a global scale. Powered by renewable energy (e.g., wind and waves for propulsion, solar power for electronics), USVs have provided navigable and persistent observing capabilities over the past decade and a half. In our review of 200 USV datasets and 96 studies, we found USVs have observed a total of 33 variables spanning physical, biogeochemical, biological and ecological processes at the air-sea transition zone. We present a map showing the global proliferation of USV adoption for scientific ocean observing. This review, carried out under the auspices of the ‘Observing Air-Sea Interactions Strategy’ (OASIS), makes the case for a permanent USV network to complement the mature and emerging networks within the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS). The Observations Coordination Group (OCG) overseeing GOOS has identified ten attributes of anin-situglobal network. Here, we discuss and evaluate the maturation of the USV network towards meeting these attributes. Our article forms the basis of a roadmap to formalise and guide the global USV community towards a novel and integrated ocean observing frontier.